讲座主题：“Was the World’s Trouble China’s Opportunity?” The Effects of WorldWar I on Chinese Textile Industry

主讲嘉宾：刘丛（上海财经大学经济学院助理教授）

讲座时间：2018年11月2日（周五），下午1：30-3:00

讲座地点：沙河主教301

嘉宾简介：刘丛，上海财经大学助理教授，2016年获得亚利桑那大学经济学博士学位，2011年获得北京大学经济学学士学位。主要研究领域包括中国经济史、发展经济学、政治经济学、国际贸易。研究成果发表于《经济研究》等期刊。

内容摘要：Import substitution is a commonly adopted policy, yet the evidenceon its results is mixed. This paper uses unexpected trade disturbances due toWorld War I to study how a temporary reduction of imports influenced thedevelopment of Chinese cotton yarn industry. During the war, Chinese importquantity of cotton yarn decreased by half while the price doubled. Narrativeevidence suggests that the yarn firms took this opportunity to earn additionalprofits and increase investments, but aggregated studies show that the postwaryears experienced greater capital formation. I combine newly constructedinformation on cotton yarn firms, access to trade, and local characteristicsfrom multiple sources to construct a county-level panel dataset from 1907 to1925 and quantitatively examine the impact of this trade shock on firm entryand investments. The results find a significant and positive impact on thecotton yarn industry, while the effect decreased as counties located furtherfrom ports. In addition, I examine the heterogeneous effects associated withvarious local institutions, and find that assess to finance was essential forfirm entry. In other worlds, contemporary import substitution strategy bringspotential gains for domestic industrial development, but supportiveinstitutions are necessary for the benefits.